Weather blog: A chance to calm down soon?

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As we move through the middle of September, many parts of the United States often notice the weather starting to change as the heat of summer gives way to the more comfortable temperatures of fall.

Southwest Florida is of course not one of those places.

Here it takes some time for the temperatures to start to cool steadily.

Our average highs actually stay at or above 85 degrees until almost the end of October, and average nightly minimums don’t drop below 65 degrees until early November.

What can sometimes shake things up a bit is when an early season cold front has enough momentum to get as far south as South Florida.

These fronts introduce a welcome but normally brief breath of cooler, less humid air before the winds change and heat and humidity return.

While we sure won’t see a significant cooldown over the next few days, some forecast data from the US GFS forecast model hints at a front we could potentially see towards the end of this month.

If the model is on the right track, we could be in line for a taste of cooler, less humid weather around September 30.

It is important to emphasize– this is only a model and like trends we watch, with tropical storms and hurricanes, things could be very different the next time the model runs which happens every two hours.

Also, even if the current model is 100% correct (which never, ever happens), any drop in temperature and humidity would be very limited.

Instead of researching and encouraging individual fronts, it might be more useful to consider the products launched by the Climate Prediction Center. These offer broad perspectives covering periods ranging from a few weeks to a few months, giving you a general idea of ​​how the weather is changing.

Unfortunately for people looking to cool off soon, most indicators point to the foreseeable future in staying warm.

The seasonal outlook for October through December actually shows that most of the southern part of the United States is experiencing generally warmer than average weather with less than normal precipitation for the final months of 2021.

It’s a good idea to point out here that the seasonal forecasts are interesting and fun to watch, but just like the hurricane season forecasts that are released each year, these are just outlooks.

There were many occasions when the seasonal temperature and precipitation forecast did not work. So just because it looks like 2021 will end hotter than normal, that’s not a 100% guarantee.

It’s also worth pointing out that these are outlooks, not day-to-day forecasts.

Cold fronts and periods of cooler weather can still occur by December, but when you look at the big picture and several months at a time, the most likely result is that overall, warmer temperatures. hotter than average will prevail.

What could indicate that this year is ending smoother than average?

A connection is probably coming from the anticipation of a La Niña being in place in the Pacific Ocean by winter.

La Niña is when temperatures near the equator off the west coast of South America tend to be colder than normal (the reverse of El Niño when those same waters tend to be warmer than average).

You can see what it looks like right now on the current water temperature anomalies map below.

On the map, water regions with warmer than normal temperatures for that time of year are shown in yellow and red, while cooler water points are shown in blue and green.

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Water temperatures in the Pacific don’t just influence the weather in this part of the world.

Instead, sea temperatures have an effect on global weather patterns, and in years when a La Niña is present during winter, the Southeastern United States often experiences warmer, drier winters. .

You can learn more about the impact of La Niña on weather in the United States during winter from the National Weather Service. here.

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